tailieunhanh - Global warming, cyclone damages, and the issue of sustainable tourism in Southeast Asia

This paper studies the feedback effect between damages caused by cyclones and unsustainable tourism in Southeast Asia. The data are constructed based on the Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports from the United States National Climatic Data Center website for the period of 1995–2013. | Tam Bang Vu & Eric Iksoon Im / Journal of Economic Development 23(1) 102-120 102 Global Warming, Cyclone Damages, and the Issue of Sustainable Tourism in Southeast Asia TAM BANG VU University of Hawaii-Hilo – tamv@ ERIC IKSOON IM University of Hawaii-Hilo – eim@ ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Article history: This paper studies the feedback effect between damages caused by cyclones and unsustainable tourism in Southeast Asia. The data are constructed based on the Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports from the United States National Climatic Data Center website for the period of 1995–2013. Establishing a cyclone damage index by combining the maximum speed when each cyclone goes through a region and characteristics of each region affected by cyclones in Southeast Asia, we first attempt to quantify the two-way causality between these cyclones and the proportion of tourist arrivals per capita. We then analyze differences among the affected countries compared to the aggregate effects. Based on the results, policy suggestions for sustainable tourism are provided in order to mitigate the cyclone damages. Received: Dec. 10 2015 Received in revised form: Dec. 12 2015 Accepted: Dec. 30 2015 Keywords: Southeast Asia, cyclone damages, sustainable tourism, feedback effect. Tam Bang Vu & Eric Iksoon Im / Journal of Economic Development 23(1) 102-120 103 1. Introduction The past twenty years have witnessed rapid growth in tourist arrivals in Southeast Asia (SEA). However, the same period has also observed rises in the intensity of the cyclones in the SEA region even though the number of the events has decreased slightly. Figure 1 demonstrates this increasing frequency of the cyclones with the speed greater than 100 knots (185 km per hour/kph) that occurred in the Pacific and Indian Oceans in general and the ones landed in the SEA countries in particular over the past forty years. There are concerns that unsustainable tourism contributes in part to the global .