tailieunhanh - Determinants of Vietnamese product export to Asean members

Determinants of Vietnamese product export to Asean members. This paper employs the gravity model to investigate and analyze the determinants of Vietnam’s exports to ASEAN countries over a period of nineteen years, from 1997 to 2015. The results show that the increase in the GDP of Vietnam and of trading countries, Vietnam’s population and the large population of importing countries. | Journal of Economics and Development, , , December 2017, pp. 91-110 ISSN 1859 0020 Determinants of Vietnamese Product Export to Asean Members Tran Lan Huong National Economics University, Vietnam Email: lanhuong1702@ Abstract This paper employs the gravity model to investigate and analyze the determinants of Vietnam’s exports to ASEAN countries over a period of nineteen years, from 1997 to 2015. The results show that the increase in the GDP of Vietnam and of trading countries, Vietnam’s population and the large population of importing countries, the change of real exchange rates, the regional free trade treaties that Vietnam signed, the shared borders and being landlocked with the importing countries, all have different influences on Vietnam’s export of different product groups. The results of this paper may be beneficial to the Vietnamese government and exporting companies in setting their export goals and policies. Keywords: Vietnam; economic integration; ASEAN; gravity model. Journal of Economics and Development 91 Vol. 19, , December 2017 1. Introduction with other ASEAN members, Vietnam has put a lot of effort in attempting to establish the free trade area of ASEAN (AFTA) and AEC (2015). After over twenty years of “Doi moi”, it is the first time Vietnam has taken part in a regional economic cooperation. Vietnam-ASEAN trading relations have considerably improved. ASEAN member countries have become increasingly important business partners of Vietnam. The average growth rate of Vietnam-ASEAN trade is at 20-25% per year. Hence, the important issue now is how to increase exports to a high rate in the coming time. To do this, we need to understand clearly the factors influencing the export value of Vietnam to ASEAN countries. Vietnam is a developing country with a rapidly changing economy. Economic integration with other countries has brought growth and development, but also poses major new challenges for the national economy. In the