tailieunhanh - Lecture Operations management: Creating value along the supply chain (Canadian edition) - Chapter 1S

Chapter 1 supplement - Decision analysis. In this chapter, you will learn about: Decision analysis, decision making without probabilities, decision analysis with excel, decision analysis with OM tools, decision making with probabilities, expected value of perfect information, sequential decision tree. | Supplement 1-1 Robert S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III, Ignacio Castillo, Navneet Vidyarthi CHAPTER 1 SUPPLEMENT Decision Analysis OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT: Creating Value Along the Supply Chain, Canadian Edition Lecture Outline Decision Analysis Decision Making without Probabilities Decision Analysis with Excel Decision Analysis with OM Tools Decision Making with Probabilities Expected Value of Perfect Information Sequential Decision Tree Supplement 1-2 Decision Analysis Quantitative methods a set of tools for operations manager Decision analysis a set of quantitative decision-making techniques for decision situations in which uncertainty exists Example of an uncertain situation demand for a product may vary between 0 and 200 units, depending on the state of market Supplement 1-3 Decision Making Without Probabilities States of nature Events that may occur in the future Examples of states of nature: high or low demand for a product good or bad economic conditions Decision making under . | Supplement 1-1 Robert S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III, Ignacio Castillo, Navneet Vidyarthi CHAPTER 1 SUPPLEMENT Decision Analysis OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT: Creating Value Along the Supply Chain, Canadian Edition Lecture Outline Decision Analysis Decision Making without Probabilities Decision Analysis with Excel Decision Analysis with OM Tools Decision Making with Probabilities Expected Value of Perfect Information Sequential Decision Tree Supplement 1-2 Decision Analysis Quantitative methods a set of tools for operations manager Decision analysis a set of quantitative decision-making techniques for decision situations in which uncertainty exists Example of an uncertain situation demand for a product may vary between 0 and 200 units, depending on the state of market Supplement 1-3 Decision Making Without Probabilities States of nature Events that may occur in the future Examples of states of nature: high or low demand for a product good or bad economic conditions Decision making under risk probabilities can be assigned to the occurrence of states of nature in the future Decision making under uncertainty probabilities can NOT be assigned to the occurrence of states of nature in the future Supplement 1-4 Payoff Table Payoff table method for organizing and illustrating payoffs from different decisions given various states of nature Payoff outcome of a decision Supplement 1-5 Decision Making Criteria Under Uncertainty Maximax choose decision with the maximum of the maximum payoffs Maximin choose decision with the maximum of the minimum payoffs Minimax regret choose decision with the minimum of the maximum regrets for each alternative Supplement 1-6 Decision Making Criteria Under Uncertainty Hurwicz choose decision in which decision payoffs are weighted by a coefficient of optimism, alpha coefficient of optimism is a measure of a decision maker’s optimism, from 0 (completely pessimistic) to 1 (completely optimistic) Equal likelihood (La Place) choose decision in which .