tailieunhanh - Lecture Modern project management: Chapter 5 - Norman R. Howes

The main contents of chapter 5 consist of the following: Factors influencing the quality of estimates; estimating guidelines for times, costs, and resources; top-down versus bottom-up estimating; methods for estimating project times and costs; level of detail; types of costs; refining estimates; creating a database for estimating. | Estimating Project Times and Costs Chapter 5 Estimating Projects Estimating The process of forecasting or approximating the time and cost of completing project deliverables The task of balancing the expectations of stakeholders and the need for control while the project is implemented Types of Estimates Top-down (macro) estimates: analogy, group consensus, or mathematical relationships Bottom-up (micro) estimates: estimates of elements of the work breakdown structure Why Estimating Time and Cost Are Important EXHIBIT Estimates are needed to support good decisions. Estimates are needed to schedule work. Estimates are needed to determine how long the project should take and its cost. Estimates are needed to determine whether the project is worth doing. Estimates are needed to develop cash flow needs. Estimates are needed to determine how well the project is progressing. Estimates are needed to develop time-phased budgets and establish the project baseline. Factors Influencing the . | Estimating Project Times and Costs Chapter 5 Estimating Projects Estimating The process of forecasting or approximating the time and cost of completing project deliverables The task of balancing the expectations of stakeholders and the need for control while the project is implemented Types of Estimates Top-down (macro) estimates: analogy, group consensus, or mathematical relationships Bottom-up (micro) estimates: estimates of elements of the work breakdown structure Why Estimating Time and Cost Are Important EXHIBIT Estimates are needed to support good decisions. Estimates are needed to schedule work. Estimates are needed to determine how long the project should take and its cost. Estimates are needed to determine whether the project is worth doing. Estimates are needed to develop cash flow needs. Estimates are needed to determine how well the project is progressing. Estimates are needed to develop time-phased budgets and establish the project baseline. Factors Influencing the Quality of Estimates Quality of Estimates Project Duration People Project Structure and Organization Padding Estimates Organization Culture Other (Nonproject) Factors Planning Horizon Estimating Guidelines for Times, Costs, and Resources Have people familiar with the tasks make the estimate. Use several people to make estimates. Base estimates on normal conditions, efficient methods, and a normal level of resources. Use consistent time units in estimating task times. Treat each task as independent, don’t aggregate. Don’t make allowances for contingencies. Adding a risk assessment helps avoid surprises to stakeholders. Macro versus Micro Estimating TABLE Conditions for Preferring Top-Down or Bottom-Up Time and Cost Estimates Condition Macro Estimates Micro Estimates Strategic decision making X Cost and time important X High uncertainty X Internal, small project X Fixed-price contract X Customer wants details X Unstable scope X Estimating Projects: Preferred Approach Make rough .