tailieunhanh - Lecture Multinational financial management - Topic 5: Exchange rate systems and the effects of revaluation

In this chapter, students understand and can recall | Topic #5: Exchange Rate Systems and The Effects of Revaluation L. Gattis The Pennsylvania State University Finance 407: Multinational Financial Management 1 Review 2 The spot euro is selling for $ – . The 9-month forward points are 342 / 355. How many euros would you receive for $100 for a 9-month delivery? Learning Objectives 3 Learning Objectives Students understand and can recall The advantages and disadvantages of alternative systems for the determination of exchange rates The effects of appreciation and depreciation on consumers and business. How exchange rates are determined within fixed rate, floating, and managed float systems. The causes and effects of the major currency crises 4 DXY “Dollar” Index (98-12) EURUSD (98-12) Currency Crisis 5 A currency crisis is a rapid and disruptive exchange rate change– usually a devaluation. Often caused by geopolitical or economic shocks the reduce the demand for investment in that country Often | Topic #5: Exchange Rate Systems and The Effects of Revaluation L. Gattis The Pennsylvania State University Finance 407: Multinational Financial Management 1 Review 2 The spot euro is selling for $ – . The 9-month forward points are 342 / 355. How many euros would you receive for $100 for a 9-month delivery? Learning Objectives 3 Learning Objectives Students understand and can recall The advantages and disadvantages of alternative systems for the determination of exchange rates The effects of appreciation and depreciation on consumers and business. How exchange rates are determined within fixed rate, floating, and managed float systems. The causes and effects of the major currency crises 4 DXY “Dollar” Index (98-12) EURUSD (98-12) Currency Crisis 5 A currency crisis is a rapid and disruptive exchange rate change– usually a devaluation. Often caused by geopolitical or economic shocks the reduce the demand for investment in that country Often associated by the failure of a fixed exchange rate system in which rates were held unnaturally high or low by governments Rapid Devaluations Most often in Emerging and Frontier Markets Short-run Effects Spike in the cost of imports (oil, medicine, technology, food) Rapid reduction in foreign investment as firms avoid depreciating currencies and instability Sharp increase in the cost to repay foreign-denominated loans (emerging market governments and companies often borrow in dollars and euros) Often associated with government layoffs to reduce budget deficits due to increased debt costs and reduced tax revenues Long-run: inflation (due to import costs) and increase in “cheaper” exports (self correcting mechanism) Poll: Currency Winners and Losers 6 Who are the most likely winners in an appreciating dollar environment (depreciating foreign currency)? American Exporters to ROW American Outsourcers to ROW? American Tourist in Europe Foreign Tourists in America? 7 Exchange Rate Systems The

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