tailieunhanh - Mathematics for Elementary Teachers 10ed [2013]2
CHA P TE R11PROBABILITYProbability in the Everyday WorldJules Frazier/Photodisc/Getty ImagesKenna Love/Photodisc/Getty ImagesOne very popular application of probability is “birthday problem.” Simply stated, in a people, what is the probability of two people same month and day of birth? Surprisingly, the probability of such matching birth dates is about are 23 people and almost when there are . An interesting application of this problem is of the 43 American presidents through . Bush: Presidents Polk and Harding were both born 2.© Bettmann/CORBISLeemage/Universal Images Group/Getty ImagesPascal communicated with Fermat about the , remarkably, each solved the problem by . Thus, in this correspondence, Pascal and the foundations of probabilityNow, probability is recognized in many aspects of . For example, when you were conceived, you had any of 8,388,608 different sets of characteristics based on 23 pairs of chromosomes. In school, if at random on a 10-item true/false test, there is a 17% probability that you will answer 7 or correctly. In the manufacturing process, quality control is becoming the buzzword. Thus it is important to know the probability that certain parts will deciding to revamp a production process or warranty. In investments, advisers assign probabilitiesto future prices in an effort to decide among opportunities. Another important use is in actuarial science, which is used to determine insurance premiums. Probability also continues a role in games of chance such as dice and cards.© Bettmann/CORBISIt is generally agreed that the science of probability began in the sixteenth century from the of the points. The problem is to determine of the stakes of two equally skilled players game of chance is interrupted before either player the required number of points in order to winHowever, real progress on this subject began in Chevalier de Mere, an experienced gambler understanding of the problem did not observations, approached the mathematician (see the following illustration) for James K. : November 2, 1795President Warren G. : November 2, 4847/31/2013 9:04:10 . Guess and . Draw a . Use a . Look for a . Make a . Solve a a simulation is a representation of an experiment using some appropriate objects.(slips of paper, dice, etc.) or perhaps a computer program. The purpose of a simulation is to run many replications of an experiment that may be difficult or perform. As you will see, to solve the following Initial Problem, it is easier to simulate the problem than to perform the actual experiment many times by strangers a party, a friend bets you that at least two people in a group of five strangers the same astrological sign. Should you take the bet? Why or why not?7. Draw a . Use . Use . Use . Solve . Work . Use . Solve an . Look for . Do a Do a Simulation strategy may be appropriate problem involves a complicated probability experimentAn actual experiment is too difficult or impossible to performA problem has a repeatable process that can be done experimentallyFinding the actual answer requires techniques not previously developedA solution of this Initial Problem is on page 4857/31/2013 9:04:10
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