tailieunhanh - Lecture Logistics management: Lecture 22 - Dr. Khurrum S. Mughal

In this chapter, the following content will be discussed: Qualitative methods, is time series pattern forecastable? time series, moving average, exponential smoothing formulas, classic time series decomposition model. | 1-1 Logistics Management LSM 730 Dr. Khurrum S. Mughal Lecture 22 1 Qualitative Methods Management, marketing, purchasing, and engineering are sources for internal qualitative forecasts Delphi method involves soliciting forecasts about technological advances from experts 12-2 8-3 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Is Time Series Pattern Forecastable? Whether a time series can be reasonably forecasted often depends on the time series’ degree of variability. Forecast a regular time series, but use other techniques for lumpy ones. How to tell the difference: Rule A time series is lumpy if where regular, otherwise. Time Series Assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in the future Relate the forecast to only one factor - time Include moving average exponential smoothing linear trend line 12-4 Moving Average Naive forecast demand in current period is used as next period’s forecast Simple moving average uses average demand for a fixed sequence of periods stable demand . | 1-1 Logistics Management LSM 730 Dr. Khurrum S. Mughal Lecture 22 1 Qualitative Methods Management, marketing, purchasing, and engineering are sources for internal qualitative forecasts Delphi method involves soliciting forecasts about technological advances from experts 12-2 8-3 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Is Time Series Pattern Forecastable? Whether a time series can be reasonably forecasted often depends on the time series’ degree of variability. Forecast a regular time series, but use other techniques for lumpy ones. How to tell the difference: Rule A time series is lumpy if where regular, otherwise. Time Series Assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in the future Relate the forecast to only one factor - time Include moving average exponential smoothing linear trend line 12-4 Moving Average Naive forecast demand in current period is used as next period’s forecast Simple moving average uses average demand for a fixed sequence of periods stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns Weighted moving average weights are assigned to most recent data 12-5 Moving Average: Naïve Approach 12-6 Jan 120 Feb 90 Mar 100 Apr 75 May 110 June 50 July 75 Aug 130 Sept 110 Oct 90 ORDERS MONTH PER MONTH - 120 90 100 75 110 50 75 130 110 90 Nov - FORECAST Simple Moving Average 12-7 MAn = n i = 1 Di n where n = number of periods in the moving average Di = demand in period i 3-month Simple Moving Average 12-8 Jan 120 Feb 90 Mar 100 Apr 75 May 110 June 50 July 75 Aug 130 Sept 110 Oct 90 Nov - ORDERS MONTH PER MONTH MA3 = 3 i = 1 Di 3 = 90 + 110 + 130 3 = 110 orders for Nov – – – MOVING AVERAGE 5-month Simple Moving Average 12-9 MA5 = 5 i = 1 Di 5 = 90 + 110 + 130+75+50 5 = 91 orders for Nov Jan 120 Feb 90 Mar 100 Apr 75 May 110 June 50 July 75 Aug 130 Sept 110 Oct 90 Nov - ORDERS MONTH PER MONTH – – – – – MOVING AVERAGE 8-10 Weighted Moving Average period current in .

• Quản trị kinh doanh
• Logistics management
• Lecture Logistics management
• Quản trị logistics
• Logistical packaging
• Transport decisions
• Inventory strategy
• Quản trị logistics kinh doanh
• Bài giảng Quản trị logistics kinh doanh
• Business logistics management
• Chiến lược logistics
• Mục tiêu quản trị logistics
• Vai trò của logistics kinh doanh
• Mạng lưới tài sản logistics
• Hệ thống thông tin logistics
• Lập kế hoạch chương trình logistics
• Tổ chức logistics
• Thuê ngoài logistics
• Kiểm soát logistics
• Lecturte Logistics management
• History of logistics
• Logistics flows
• Corner store processes
• International logistics
• Global logostics
• Global logistics plans
• International supply chain
• Reverse logistics
• Operational factors reverse logistics
• Strategic reasons
• Concepts Logistics operations
• Logistics operations and management
• Models Logistics operations
• Logistics philosophies
• Logistics parties
• Logistics future trends
• Quản lý kho hàng
• Quản lý bao bì hàng hóa
• Quản lý logistics ngược
• Mạng lưới tài sản
• Kiểm soát hoạt động logistics
• Quá trình cung ứng hàng hóa
• Transport in the logistics chain
• Logistics chain
• Strategic factors impacting
• Warehouse management
• Logistics system
• Design consideration
• Logistics theory
• Lecture Logistics theory
• Lý thuyết logistics
• Logistics systems
• Inventory management
• Inventory management policy
• Direct shipment
• Dịch vụ khách hàng
• Quá trình cung ứng hàng hóa cho khách hàng
• Quá trình logistics trực tiếp trong bán lẻ
• Quản trị vận chuyển
• Hệ thống logistics
• Vận chuyển hàng hóa
• Quản lý hoạt động vận chuyển
• Total quality management
• Quality management
• Quality improvement
• Supply chain
• Value added
• Lead time
• Just in time
• Communication technology
• Satellite communication
• Electronic data interchange
• Role of packaging
• Purposes of packaging
• Logistics/SC in Diverse Areas
• Logistics Strategy Formulation
• Mixed strategy
• Supply chain strategy
• Managing facilitating goods
• Inventory cost
• Material management
• Manufacturing planning
• Production planning
• Supply chain management
• Bullwhip effect
• Control for supply chain management
• Supply chain logistics
• Management of supply chain logistics
• Supply chain logistics framework
• Warehouse replenishment systems