tailieunhanh - Impacts of climate change and sea level rise on salinity intrusion in the lower Dong Nai river system

This study was to assess the impacts of change of upstream flow and sea level rise due to climate change on salinity intrusion in HCMC. The MIKE 11 model with modules hydrodynamic (HD) and advection-dispersion (AD) was applied to this problem by setting up the whole lower Dong Nai river system. | Journal of Science and Technology 54 (2A) (2016) 244-250 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE ON SALINITY INTRUSION IN THE LOWER DONG NAI RIVER SYSTEM Nguyen Thi Thu Ha1, *, Nguyen Thi Thanh Vy2, Dao Nguyen Khoi2, 3 1 Institute for Computational Science and Technology, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam 2 Faculty of Environment, University of Science, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, 227 Nguyen Van Cu, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam 3 Center of Water Management and Climate Change, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam * Email: nguyenthithuha033@ Received: 5 May 2016; Accepted for publication: 26 June 2016 ABSTRACT Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) is ranked among the top 10 cities in the world most likely to be severely affected by climate change and sea level rise (SLR). This study was to assess the impacts of change of upstream flow and sea level rise due to climate change on salinity intrusion in HCMC. The MIKE 11 model with modules hydrodynamic (HD) and advection-dispersion (AD) was applied to this problem by setting up the whole lower Dong Nai river system. Based upon the observed water level and salinity concentration data in 2009, the calibration and validation results indicated that the MIKE11 model was able to simulate the streamflow and salinity concentration with NSE values exceeding for both calibration and validation periods. As a result, the differences in salinity concentration under climate change and SLR scenarios were analyzed. The simulated results illustrate that the saltwater will move inland in the future, especially in the dry season. Keywords: climate change, MIKE 11, Dong Nai river system, sea level rise, salinity intrusion. 1. INTRODUCTION Climate change is one of the biggest challenges to humanity in the 21st century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5) indicated that the coastal countries in Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, are highly vulnerable to climate change and sea .