tailieunhanh - Lecture Introduction to Management Science with Spreadsheets: Chapter 2 - Stevenson, Ozgur

Chapter 2 "Forecasting", after completing this chapter, you should be able to: Explain the importance of forecasting in organizations, describe the three major approaches to forecasting, use a variety of techniques to make forecasts, measure the accuracy of a forecast over time using various methods,. | Chapter 2 Forecasting Part 2 Introduction to Management Science and Forecasting Learning Objectives Explain the importance of forecasting in organizations. Describe the three major approaches to forecasting. Use a variety of techniques to make forecasts. Measure the accuracy of a forecast over time using various methods. Determine when a forecast can be improved. Discuss the main considerations in selecting a forecasting technique. Utilize Excel to solve various forecasting problems. After completing this chapter, you should be able to: McGraw-Hill/Irwin 2– The Importance of Forecasting Forecasting is important because it helps reduce uncertainty. provides decision makers with an improved picture of probable future events and, thereby, enable decision makers to plan accordingly. is used for planning the system itself. is used for planning the use of the system as a process has an inherent tendency for inaccuracy. McGraw-Hill/Irwin 2– The Importance of Forecasting The Forecasting Process Determine the purpose of the forecast. Determine the time horizon. Select an appropriate technique. Identify the necessary data, and gather it if necessary. Make the forecast. Monitor forecast errors in order to determine if the forecast is performing adequately. If it is not, take appropriate corrective action. McGraw-Hill/Irwin 2– Approaches to Forecasting Qualitative Forecasts are based on judgment and/or opinion rather than on the analysis of “hard” data. Forecasts That Use Time Series Data involve the assumption that past experience reflects probable future experience (., the past movements or patterns in the data will persist into the future). Explanatory Models incorporate one or more variables that are related to the variable of interest and, therefore, they can be used to predict future values of that variable. McGraw-Hill/Irwin 2– Selecting the Forecasting Technique Factors affecting the choice of the forecasting technique to be used: the importance . | Chapter 2 Forecasting Part 2 Introduction to Management Science and Forecasting Learning Objectives Explain the importance of forecasting in organizations. Describe the three major approaches to forecasting. Use a variety of techniques to make forecasts. Measure the accuracy of a forecast over time using various methods. Determine when a forecast can be improved. Discuss the main considerations in selecting a forecasting technique. Utilize Excel to solve various forecasting problems. After completing this chapter, you should be able to: McGraw-Hill/Irwin 2– The Importance of Forecasting Forecasting is important because it helps reduce uncertainty. provides decision makers with an improved picture of probable future events and, thereby, enable decision makers to plan accordingly. is used for planning the system itself. is used for planning the use of the system as a process has an inherent tendency for inaccuracy. McGraw-Hill/Irwin 2– The Importance of Forecasting The .

• Quản trị kinh doanh
• Management science
• Management science with spreadsheets
• Deterministic decision models
• Probabilistic decision models
• Forecasting process
• Qualitative forecasts
• Applications of management science
• Excel spreadsheets
• Management thought
• Evolution of management thought
• Ideas in management
• Management theory
• Systems in management
• Production management
• Linear programming
• Graphical solution
• Marketing applications
• Simplex method
• Sensitivity analysis
• Transportation method
• Solving transportation problems
• Integer programming
• Integer programming problems
• Solving integer programming
• Nonlinear programming
• Network optimization models
• Differential arithmetic
• Multicriteria decision
• Making models
• Decision theory
• Decision making
• Waiting line models
• Poisson distribution
• Fixed Interval simulations
• Discrete simulations
• An introduction to management science
• Advanced linear programming applications
• Integer linear programming
• Markov processes
• Nonlinear optimization models
• Inventory models
• Decision analysis