tailieunhanh - Lecture Project management: The managerial process (5/e): Chapter 7 - Erik W. Larson, Clifford F. Gray

Chapter 7 - Managing risk. The main contents of the chapter consist of the following: Risk management process, risk identification, risk assessment, risk response development, opportunity management, contingency planning, contingency funding and time buffers, risk response control, change control management | Where We Are Now 7– Risk Management Process Risk Uncertain or chance events that planning can not overcome or control. Risk Management A proactive attempt to recognize and manage internal events and external threats that affect the likelihood of a project’s success. What can go wrong (risk event). How to minimize the risk event’s impact (consequences). What can be done before an event occurs (anticipation). What to do when an event occurs (contingency plans). 7– Risk Management’s Benefits A proactive rather than reactive approach. Reduces surprises and negative consequences. Prepares the project manager to take advantage of appropriate risks. Provides better control over the future. Improves chances of reaching project performance objectives within budget and on time. 7– Managing Risk Step 1: Risk Identification Generate a list of possible risks through brainstorming, problem identification and risk profiling. Macro risks first, then specific events Step 2: Risk . | Where We Are Now 7– Risk Management Process Risk Uncertain or chance events that planning can not overcome or control. Risk Management A proactive attempt to recognize and manage internal events and external threats that affect the likelihood of a project’s success. What can go wrong (risk event). How to minimize the risk event’s impact (consequences). What can be done before an event occurs (anticipation). What to do when an event occurs (contingency plans). 7– Risk Management’s Benefits A proactive rather than reactive approach. Reduces surprises and negative consequences. Prepares the project manager to take advantage of appropriate risks. Provides better control over the future. Improves chances of reaching project performance objectives within budget and on time. 7– Managing Risk Step 1: Risk Identification Generate a list of possible risks through brainstorming, problem identification and risk profiling. Macro risks first, then specific events Step 2: Risk Assessment Scenario analysis for event probability and impact Risk assessment matrix Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Probability analysis Decision trees, NPV, and PERT Semiquantitative scenario analysis 7– Managing Risk (cont’d) Step 3: Risk Response Development Mitigating Risk Reducing the likelihood an adverse event will occur. Reducing impact of adverse event. Avoiding Risk Changing the project plan to eliminate the risk or condition. Transferring Risk Paying a premium to pass the risk to another party. Requiring Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT) provisions. Retaining Risk Making a conscious decision to accept the risk. 7– Contingency Planning Contingency Plan An alternative plan that will be used if a possible foreseen risk event actually occurs. A plan of actions that will reduce or mitigate the negative impact (consequences) of a risk event. Risks of Not Having a Contingency Plan Having no plan may slow managerial response. Decisions made under pressure can be potentially