tailieunhanh - Outlook for world fertilizer demand, supply, and supply demand balance

The outlook is driven by impressive economic growth in Asia, increasing demand for biofuel, and a tight grain market. As a result of tight supply/demand conditions, prices for almost all agricultural commodities are unusually high. | Turk J Agric For 32 (2008) 159-164 © TÜB‹TAK Outlook for World Fertilizer Demand, Supply, and Supply/Demand Balance Patrick HEFFER*, Michel PRUD’HOMME International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA), 28 rue Marbeuf, 75008 Paris - FRANCE Received: Abstract: The outlook is driven by impressive economic growth in Asia, increasing demand for biofuel, and a tight grain market. As a result of tight supply/demand conditions, prices for almost all agricultural commodities are unusually high. The need to boost agricultural production worldwide is stimulating fertilizer consumption in Asia and the Americas, driving global demand to new record levels. For the production of most nutrients 2007 was a record year, as buoyant demand stretched the industry’s capacity to meet global requirements. All supply and demand situations will be difficult to balance until 2011 due to sustained fertilizer demand. With nitrogen supply growing at a much faster rate than demand in the medium term, a significant urea surplus is likely until 2010. Other nutrient balances will be tight until 2011. Key Words: Agricultural production, fertilizer demand, fertilizer supply Global Context Despite surging oil prices and an economic slowdown in the United States, the world economy remains robust. Reflecting continued rapid growth in emerging Asia, world gross domestic product (GDP) in 2007 will increase by some 5% for the fourth consecutive year according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2007). Weather conditions in 2007 were favorable overall, although Europe, the Black Sea region, Morocco, and Australia were affected by dry spells (FAO, 2007). Policy leaders in Brazil, the United States, and the European Union (EU) have provided strong support for biofuel production (Coyle, 2007). The expansion of maize-based bioethanol production has been particularly rapid in the United States. The bioethanol boom has resulted in a dramatic crop mix change in the US, with a 20% increase in