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Norges Bank Watch 2008: An Independent Review of Monetary Policymaking in Norway

In a simple world of full Ricardian Equivalence, households increase their savings by the present value of future taxes needed to repay government debt. Their desired bond holdings thus rise by the exact increase in government debt issuance. Private consumption declines to offset the increase in public expenditure, leaving GDP unchanged. The long-term interest rate therefore remains constant. 5 In this stylised view, changes of the government debt/GDP ratio should not affect the future path of interest rates, nominal or real, in any way at all. A related perspective is that higher government debt/GDP ratios would tend to increase the. | 1 19 February 2008 Norges Bank Watch 2008 An Independent Review of Monetary Policymaking in Norway Steinar Juel Krisztina Molnar Knut Raed 2 Contents Foreword 3 Mandate for Norges Bank Watch 2008 4 Executive summary 5 1. Conduct of monetary policy in 2007 10 1.1. Forecasts and outcomes in 2007 10 1.2. The interest rate setting 15 1.3. Appropriate interest rate path 18 1.4. Asset prices 21 1.5. The neutral interest rate 26 1.6. Communication of policy 28 2. Economic analysis at Norges Bank and the assessment of current and future macroeconomic conditions 31 2.1. Nowcasting and forecasting at Norges Bank 31 2.2. Assessment of nowcasting and forecasting performance 33 2.3. Assessment of labour market tightness 41 2.4. Properties of the core model 42 2.5. Openness regarding the role of formal models and judgment - creating an environment for cumulative learning and model improvement 43 3. Potential output and the output gap - structural change and responsiveness towards labour demand 44 4. A new core model for Norges Bank - finding a better NEMO 49 4.1. The history of modelling at Norges Bank 49 4.2. NEMO - the new core model 50 4.3. Non-atomi sti c wage setters 51 4.4. How private agents form their expectations 54 4.5. Survey expectations of inflation 55 Appendix Chapter 4 66 Appendix Interviews 69 References 70 3 Foreword Each year the Centre for Monetary Economics CME appoints an independent group of experts to examine monetary policy in Norway. This year the group consists of the following Steinar Juel Chief Economist for Norway at Nordea Krisztina Molnar Assistant Professor at NHH and Knut Roed Senior Research Fellow at the Frisch Centre. The committee is solely responsible for the report and the views presented therein. The report does not necessarily represent the views of the CME or its members. Oslo 19 February 2008 Centre for Monetary Economics Arne Jon .