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Presented to the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences of the University of Fribourg (Switzerland) in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Economics and Social Sciences

When there are frictions in setting nominal wages, however, a riseintherealwagerequiresthatinflationbeallowedtodriftdown.Theinflation targeting central bank, seeing this drift down in inflation, cuts the interest rate to keep inflation on target. In our model, this cut in the interest rate triggers a credit boom and makes the economic expansion much bigger than is socially optimal. In a situation like this, a central bank that ‘leans against the wind’ when credit expands sharply would raise welfare by reducing the magnitude of the boom-bust cycle | University of Fribourg Switzerland Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY VALUATION Stock Selection based on Discounted Cash Flow Thesis Presented to the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences of the University of Fribourg Switzerland in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Economics and Social Sciences by PASCAL S. FROIDEVAUX from Le Noirmont JU Accepted by the Faculty s Council on 1 July 2004 at the proposal of Professor Jacques Pasquier-Dorthe University of Fribourg Switzerland First Reporter and Professor Tung X. Bui University of Hawai i USA Second Reporter Fribourg Switzerland 2004 II The Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences at the University of Fribourg Switzerland neither approves nor disapproves the opinions expressed in a doctoral dissertation they are to be considered those of the author decision of the Faculty council of 23 January 1990 . III Table of Contents Table of Contents.III List of Tables and Figures.V Abbreviations and Symbols.VIII Abstract.1 1. INTRODUCTION.2 PART I COMMON STOCK INVESTMENT AND VALUATION.3 2. THE INVESTMENT PROCESS.3 2.1 Market Efficiency Modern Portfolio Theory vs. Fundamental Analysis.4 2.2 Valuation - MORE Art than science .7 3. EQUITY VALUATION MODELS.8 3.1 asset based Valuation.8 3.2 absolute Valuation or discounted cash flow Models.10 3.2.1 Dividend Discount Models.11 3.2.2 Free Cash Flow Discount Models.12 3.2.3 Residual Income Models.13 3.3 relative Valuation or Price Multiple Models.15 3.4 WHAT IS USED AND WHAT WORKS IN PRACTICE.17 PART II THE FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY VALUATION MODEL.21 4. THE FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY VALUATION MODEL.21 4.1 OVERVIEW OF THE Fundamental equity Valuation Model.21 4.2 determining the Nominator cash Flow cash Flow Growth and the Growth duration. 25 4.2.1 The Cash Flow to Discount.25 4.2.2 Fundamental Cash Flow Growth.29 4.2.3 The Fundamental Growth Duration.36 4.3 determining the denominator the Fundamental discount rate.38 4.3.1 Risk and the Required .