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Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues

The effect of wealth on consumption has been studied extensively in the empirical literature on consumption functions. In this section we provide a brief overview of the findings of these studies. 2 Few studies have examined the relationship between consumption and total wealth for Australia. Tan and Voss (2003) have estimated the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of total wealth at 0.04 or, in other words, that long-run annual consumption increases by 4 cents in response to a one dollar increase in wealth. Bertaut (2002) puts this number marginally higher at 0.05. In an earlier study, McKibbin and Richards (1988) found an MPC of 0.02, but they point. | The William Davidson Institute AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies Taking Stock of the Issues By Balazs Égert László Halpern and Ronald MacDonald William Davidson Institute Working Paper Number 793 October 2005 Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies Taking Stock of the Issues Balazs Égertè László Halpern Ronald MacDonald Abstract In this paper we present an overview of a number of issues relating to the equilibrium exchange rates of transition economies of the former soviet bloc. In particular we present a critical overview of the various methods available for calculating equilibrium exchange rates and discuss how useful they are likely to be for the transition economies. Amongst our findings is the result that the trend appreciation usually observed for the exchange rates of these economies is affected by factors other than the usual Balassa-Samuelson effect such as the behaviour of the real exchange rate of the open sector and regulated prices. We then consider three main sources of uncertainty relating to the implementation of an equilibrium exchange rate model namely differences in the theoretical underpinnings differences in the econometric estimation techniques and differences relating to the time series and cross-sectional dimensions of the data. The ensuing three-dimensional space of real misalignments is probably a useful tool in determining the direction of a possible misalignment rather than its precise size. JEL C15 E31 F31 O11 P17. Keywords equilibrium exchange rate Purchasing Power Parity trend appreciation Balassa-Samuelson effect productivity inflation differential tradable prices regulated prices Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate NATREX CHEER transitional economies euro. Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Surveys. Oesterreichische Nationalbank MODEM University of Paris X-Nanterre and William Davidson Institute. .