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Learning Patient-Specific Cancer Survival Distributions as a Sequence of Dependent Regressors

Do the cancer cells have hormone receptors? Hormone receptors are like ears on and in breast cells that listen to signals from hormones. These hormone signals tell breast cells that have the receptors to grow. A cancer is called eR-positive if it has receptors for the hormone estrogen. It’s called PR-positive if it has receptors for the hormone progesterone. Breast cells that do not have receptors are negative for these hormones. Breast cancers that are ER-positive, PR-positive, or both tend to respond to hormonal therapy. Hormonal therapy is medicine that reduces the amount of estrogen in your body or that blocks estrogen. | Learning Patient-Specific Cancer Survival Distributions as a Sequence of Dependent Regressors Chun-Nam Yu Russell Greiner Hsiu-Chin Lin Department of Computing Science University of Alberta Edmonton AB T6G 2E8 chunnam rgreiner hsiuchin @ualberta.ca Vickie Baracos Department of Oncology University of Alberta Edmonton AB T6G 1Z2 vickie.baracos@ualberta.ca Abstract An accurate model of patient survival time can help in the treatment and care of cancer patients. The common practice of providing survival time estimates based only on population averages for the site and stage of cancer ignores many important individual differences among patients. In this paper we propose a local regression method for learning patient-specific survival time distribution based on patient attributes such as blood tests and clinical assessments. When tested on a cohort of more than 2000 cancer patients our method gives survival time predictions that are much more accurate than popular survival analysis models such as the Cox and Aalen regression models. Our results also show that using patient-specific attributes can reduce the prediction error on survival time by as much as 20 when compared to using cancer site and stage only. 1 Introduction When diagnosed with cancer most patients ask about their prognosis how long will I live and what is the success rate of each treatment option . Many doctors provide patients with statistics on cancer survival based only on the site and stage of the tumor. Commonly used statistics include the 5-year survival rate and median survival time e.g. a doctor can tell a specific patient with early stage lung cancer that s he has a 50 5-year survival rate. In general today s cancer survival rates and median survival times are estimated from a large group of cancer patients while these estimates do apply to the population in general they are not particularly accurate for individual patients as they do not include patient-specific information such as age and .