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From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences and Lessons

In the United States, insurance regulators require bonds and preferred stocks to be reported in statutory financial statements in one of six National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) designations categories that denote credit quality. If an accepted rating organisation (ARO) has rated the security, the security is not required to be filed with the NAIC’s Securities Valuation Office (SVO). Rather, the ARO rating is used to map the security to one of the six NAIC designation categories. 18 The NAIC designations are primarily designed to assist regulators (as opposed to investors) to monitor the financial condition of their insurers. Finally,. | From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis Similarities Differences and Lessons1 Miguel Almunia Agustín S. Bénétrix Barry Eichengreen Kevin H. O Rourke and Gisela Rua Department of Economics University of California Berkeley Department of Economics and IIIS Trinity College Dublin This paper is produced as part of the project Historical Patterns of Development and Underdevelopment Origins and Persistence of the Great Divergence HI-POD a Collaborative Project funded by the European Commission s Seventh Research Framework Programme Contract number 225342. Financial assistance was also received from the Coleman Fung Risk Management Center at the University of California Berkeley. This paper could not have been written without the generosity of many colleagues who have shared their data with us. We are extremely grateful to Richard Baldwin Giovanni Federico Vahagn Galstyan Mariko Hatase Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur William Hynes Doug Irwin Lars Jonung Philip Lane Sibylle Lehmann Ilian Mihov Emory Oakes Albrecht Ritschl Lennart Schon Pierre Sicsic Wim Suyker Alan Taylor Bryan Taylor Gianni Toniolo Irina Tytell the staff at the National Library of Ireland two anonymous referees and the editor Philippe Martin. 1 This paper was presented at the 50th Economic Policy Panel Meeting held in Tilburg on October 23-24 2009. The authors thank the University of Tilburg for their generosity in hosting the meeting. 1. Introduction The parallels between the Great Credit Crisis of 2008 and the onset of the Great Depression have been widely commented upon. Paul Krugman posted to his widely-read blog a graph comparing the fall in manufacturing production in the United States from its respective mid-1929 and late-2007 peaks.2 The Bad Bears graph comparing the stock market crashes of 1929-30 and 2008-9 has had wide circulation.3 Justin Fox has prominently compared the behaviour of payroll employment in the two downturns.4 But these authors like most other commentators compared the United .