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advances in Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management phần 3

Giá cổ phần không được xác định bởi nhu cầu, nhưng ước tính giá trị thị trường hiện tại của tài sản ròng của Quỹ trên mỗi cổ phiếu (NAV) và hoa hồng. Đóng quỹ được công khai công ty đầu tư giao dịch đã ban hành một số quy định của cổ phiếu và chỉ có thể vấn đề | Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management But both holding period returns and sample mean of returns are calculated using historical data. However what happened in the past for the investor is not as important as what happens in the future because all the investors decisions are focused to the future or to expected results from the investments. Of course no one investor knows the future but he she can use past information and the historical data as well as to use his knowledge and practical experience to make some estimates about it. Analyzing each particular investment vehicle possibilities to earn income in the future investor must think about several scenarios of probable changes in macro economy industry and company which could influence asset prices ant rate of return. Theoretically it could be a series of discrete possible rates of return in the future for the same asset with the different probabilities of earning the particular rate of return. But for the same asset the sum of all probabilities of these rates of returns must be equal to 1 or 100 . In mathematical statistics it is called simple probability distribution. The expected rate of return E r of investment is the statistical measure of return which is the sum of all possible rates of returns for the same investment weighted by probabilities E r Ê hi X ri 2.4 i 1 Here hi - probability of rate of return ri - rate of return. In all cases than investor has enough information for modeling of future scenarios of changes in rate of return for investment the decisions should be based on estimated expected rate of return. But sometimes sample mean of return arithmetic average return are a useful proxy for the concept of expected rate of return. Sample mean can give an unbiased estimate of the expected value but obviously it s not perfectly accurate because based on the assumption that the returns in the future will be the same as in the past. But this is the only one scenario in estimating expected rate of