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báo cáo sinh học:" The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce"

Tuyển tập các báo cáo nghiên cứu về sinh học được đăng trên tạp chí sinh học quốc tế đề tài : The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce | Takata et al. Human Resources for Health 2011 9 14 http www.human-resources-health.eom content 9 1 14 HUMAN RESOURCES FOR HEALTH RESEARCH Open Access The current shortage and future surplus of doctors a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce Hideaki Takata1 Hiroshi Nagata23 Hiroki Nogawa3t and Hiroshi Tanaka43 Abstract Background Starting in the late 1980s the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. The result of this policy is a serious shortage of doctors in Japan today which has become a social problem in recent years. In an attempt to solve this problem the Japanese government decided in 2007 to increase the medical student quota from 7625 to 8848. Furthermore the Democratic Party of Japan DPJ Japan s ruling party after the 2009 election promised in their manifesto to increase the medical student quota to 1.5 times what it was in 2007 in order to raise the number of medical doctors to more than 3.0 per 1000 persons. It should be noted however that this rapid increase in the medical student quota may bring about a serious doctor surplus in the future especially because the population of Japan is decreasing. The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus. Methods Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce. Results Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 2.25 per 1000 persons in 2008 to 365 533 over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000 in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025 to 3.71 in 2035 and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the